Hi again,

Continuing on from my previous post, here is how I anticipate the bottom half of the 2009 AFL premiership ladder to play out..

9. Kangaroos – Since Wayne Carey’s departure from Arden Street (yes, I’m venturing back a few years now), I just haven’t had a lot of time for the Roos. And whilst, at times, I admire their so-called ’shin-boner spirit’ (which is only mentioned in gritty victories – yet amazingly never spoken of when they cop 50-point defeats) – there is nothing currently about their playing list that inspires me. Perhaps Brent Harvey, but little else to be honest. The no-frills, workmanlike approach of Petrie, Simpson, Rawlings and Harris might win them their fair share of games, but does little to sell memberships. Perhaps this will change in ‘09, but I’m not expecting big things.

10. Richmond – On paper, the Tigers will mostly be relying on their 2008 line-up to show steady improvement in their continued rise up the ladder. I wish Ben Cousins all the luck in the world in his recovery from his drug addiction, and I consider myself a fan of his, but one wonders whether his hamstrings will go the distance given his lengthy lay-off from competitive footy. And of course, as an AFL follower, you just have to love Richo (the good and the bad version). In 2008, we saw a lot of the good Richo, as he even came within a vote or two of a Brownlow Medal (which he deserved to win, mind you, unlike Cooney?). The Tigers will be thereabouts, but I don’t believe the addition of Cousins alone will be enough for them to force their way into the Top 8.

11. Brisbane – Brisbane, led by newly appointed head coach and Lions great Michael Voss, will be a team to watch in 2009 – and whilst I had considered slipping them into my Top 8, I just couldn’t justify it in the end. So much will hinge on the fitness of powerhouse forward, Brown and Bradshaw. A full season to both and they’ll be knocking on the door of the 8, if not higher. Speaking of injuries, wouldn’t they also love the talented pair of Luke Power and Simon Black to be at 100% fitness all season. There will be too many untested youngsters in their line-up for them to be a real threat over a long and arduous home-and-away season, which isn’t to say they can’t knock off some talented teams – because they most likely will – but I don’t foresee a Top 8 finish with all other things being equal.

12. Essendon – And now, the start of the “best of the rest”. So basically, I’m discounting every team from this position onwards and giving them no hope of seeing finals footy. But if any of these teams can make it, Essendon would be the one to make it interesting. Whilst their ‘better’ players are another year older (I speak of Lloyd, Lucas, Fletcher and McPhee) – and James Hird is still retired – there are some younger, middle-tier players I actually rate. They include McVeigh, Stanton, Watson and Welsh (though his recent injury will hurt the Dons). They wont be terrible, but I wouldn’t expect them to be in finals contention for too long.

13. West Coast – Cox, Kerr, Embley, Glass, Selwood, Wirrpanda, Q.Lynch and Priddis – that is a fair nucleus of players to have as your foundation.  Their first round NAB Cup humiliation at the hands of Collingwood should be largely overlooked, given the Eagles were missing most of the aforementioned players – whilst the Pies fielded close to a full strength line-up.  I like the look of Masten, Ebert and McKinley – whilst another, Mitchell Brown, is said to be training down the house.  If their stars can all stay on the park – namely Cox, Kerr and Embley – this team could rise up once more.  But several of their youngsters looked extremely raw the other night, but it remains to be seen what a difference it will make having their better, more experienced players out on the field with them.  Between 6-8 wins sounds about right.

14. Fremantle – You just have to wonder when the ‘purple haze’ will finally hit their straps and put together a consistent season.  It’s fair to say Mark Harvey didn’t impress me much throughout 2008 (the phrase ‘deer in headlights’ comes to mind), however Freo – with just the 6 wins -  came within a whisker of a victory so many times it is beyond belief.  8 losses by less than 10 points is an amazing statistic, and shows they weren’t far away from competing for finals – had those results been reversed.  At the end of the day, they couldn’t win the games when they were there for the taking.  Blame the coach, blame the players – either way, it became a big problem.  Their line-up, led by the ever consistent Pavlich, is solid – and from all accounts there are some talented kids coming through.  The Dockers will scare a few teams once again, but they probably lack the class to push much further up the ladder than this.

15. Port Power – There is some potential in the Power line-up, with no less than 8 or 9 quality players when they’re fit and firing.  Their ’spine’ appears a worry, however, especially with the ageing Warren Tredrea plugged in at full-forward and Westhoff (seems to turn up to play every other game) at CHF.  Tredrea (who is 3 or 4 years removed from his best form) has really struggled in the past year or two to have an impact, though he has no doubt been hampered by injury.  If the Cornes and Burgoyne clans stay healthy and produce the quality footy we know they’re capable of,  it wouldn’t surprise me if they finished several places higher than 15th.  But I can’t shake the doubts I currently have about aspects of their line-up, so I’ll leave them here.

16. Melbourne – Sorry Demons fans, but whilst there should be some improvement on their horrific 2008 season – something dramatic would need to occur for Melbourne to climb off the bottom of the ladder. Take out Green, Bruce, Davey and the gritty James McDonald – and this line-up is very ordinary. Robertson is not the player he once was – and hasn’t been for a couple of years now. It will be interesting to see if ‘Robbo’ can find some of his vintage form in 2009. There is nothing about the Demons line-up that instills me with any sense of confidence – and I expect another miserable year again this year. Melbourne will want to see their youngsters show something and give their supporters a reason to cheer.

Well, thanks for reading. In about 6 or 7 months, we’ll know exactly how inaccurate these predictions are!

Feel free to comment and leave your own predictions for the upcoming AFL season!

Luke.