G’day,

With the 2009 AFL NAB Cup commencing last night (West Coast vs Collingwood at Subiaco), I thought it would be interesting to post my early prediction as to how the AFL premiership ladder will look after the home-and-away season (22 rounds).

There are sure to be many surprises in store for 2009, so please keep in mind that the following ladder is based on mostly the form of last season but also off-season developments as well, which are substantial for some clubs.

1. Geelong - I’m not saying they’ll necessarily take the flag, but given a lack of injuries and from all reports a good pre-season for several of their stars, I can see Geelong taking all before them this year – after their disappointing end to 2008 in the Grand Final. I’d suggest Ablett will be at his brilliant best this year (perhaps striving for that elusive Brownlow), whilst Bartel will want (and need) to atone for his Grand Final performance (the second half particularly). Cam Mooney, also, will desperately want to put the memories of the season decider behind him.

2. Hawthorn - The reigning premiers are dealing with their fair share of injuries at the moment, but once they overcome these issues, they should hit their stride as they did at the end of 2008. With only the retired Shane Crawford missing from their premiership line-up, there is no reason to believe the Hawks wont be as strong, if not stronger, than their 2008 premiership campaign. From what I hear, Buddy hasn’t had a great pre-season – but surely he will continue his enigmatic ways and watch out if he becomes disciplined and/or consistent. It will be interesting how the Hawks respond to the pressures of being the hunted, and not the hunter, each week – especially given the scrutiny their 2008 performance would have received from opposition coaches throughout the off-season.

3. St.Kilda – After Geelong and Hawthorn, it is a lottery as to which times will make up the positions 3-8 on the premiership ladder. I’ve selected the Saints at #3 (despite my own reservations) – as if the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Ball, Goddard and Maguire can have uninterrupted, injury-free years, I believe the Saints may have the potential to finish at least top 4, so by default I’ve slotted them at #3. Steven King and Michael Gardiner in the rucks is somewhat of a concern to me, as only time will tell whether they can stand up to the rigors of a full season of footy. There are others in the line-up that worry me, and probably Saints fans as well – namely Koschitzke, Milne, R.Clarke, Gilbert – but the big names should still see them finish top 4.

4. Adelaide - Another tough one at #4, as I am finding it difficult to separate the teams after #1 and #2. The Crows finished fifth last season with 13 wins and I don’t see enough improvement in teams who were below them on the 2008 ladder (Swans, Roos, Pies) for them to miss a top 4 spot. I like their mix of old (Thompson, Edwards, McLeod, Bock) and young (Reily, Van Berlo, Knights) – not to mention their usually very favourable home ground advantage – which I think should assure them another finals birth in 2009.

5. Western Bulldogs – You could say I’m not exactly a ‘believer’ in the Doggies, as they have shown time and time again that when it comes to finals, they are too often found wanting in height and strength around the ground. 2009 doesn’t seem as though it will be any different in that respect, but that’s not to say they can’t have a good home-and-away season (which undoubtedly they will). I’m predicting a fifth place finish, but I can’t see any significant structural changes to rectify their problems from seasons past, with the forward line looking too short and the backline still a bit thin.

6. Sydney - I initially had not planned to consider the Swans for a finals spot, but looking at their best-case starting 22 for round 1, there is too much talent for them to drop out of finals contention. Given a healthy year to Goodes, Hall, O’Keefe, Kirk, Malceski, McVeigh, O’Loughlin, Jolly, Bolton and Buchanan amongst others – this will surely see Sydney make the finals and all going well, they may even place higher than sixth. Then again, age and injury could bite them, but I wouldn’t be sending them to the retirement home just yet.

7. Collingwood - I don’t rate Collingwood, plain and simple. But Malthouse is a good coach and I would be shocked (and even a little bit excited) were they to miss playing finals footy this year. The ruck position is a worry for the Pies, with the ever-inconsistent Josh Fraser is asked to carry a huge load – especially with the acquisition of former Lion Cameron Wood not paying off in 2008 (they would be hoping for better things from Wood this year). Not wanting to sound like a broken record, but whether Rocca can manage a near-full year will be crucial to their success – as Cloke seems to be more comfortable playing on the lesser (2nd or 3rd tier) defenders.

8. Carlton - This position was a scramble out of Richmond, Brisbane and Carlton (yes, I’m another person who doesn’t rate the Kangaroos). Whilst both the Tigers and Lions would expect improvement on their 2008 campaigns due to new coaches (Voss) or players (Cousins), my prediction is that Carlton will continue their resurgence up the AFL ladder by jumping from 11th to 8th. Firstly, Judd appears to be fully fit – which will be amazing to watch. And whilst I think the backline is still a tad weak (though Chris Johnson will help, thanks Melbourne!) – the further improvement from Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer and hopefully Walker should be exciting from a Blues supporters perspective. Fevola, Betts and Yarran up forward could also provide some headaches for defenders. As long as they beat the teams “below them” consistently (such as Essendon – something they couldn’t do in two tries in 2008) – they should snare enough wins to grab the last finals spot.

So that’s it, my take on the 2009 Top 8. Stay tuned for the bottom 8 predictions, coming soon!

Luke.